President Donald Trump has used Twitter to forge trade deals and impact foreign policy, but now a major financial services company wants to know how quickly and dramatically Trump's tweets affect its investors' bottom lines.
JPMorgan's investigation looked at Treasury returns in the five minutes following a Trump tweet, along with the indicator, indicates the rolling one-month likelihood that every message is market-moving.
The analysts add that they have found "strong evidence that tweets have increasingly moved USA rates markets immediately after publication". "Accordingly, a wide swathe of benefits from single-name stocks to full scale items have discovered their cost elements progressively obliged to a bunch of tweets from the president".
"The president has produced more than 10,000 tweets since taking office, at a pace that has accelerated in recent months".
Trump has maintained a remarkably consistent daily presence on Twitter since taking office, averaging more than 10 tweets a day to his almost 64 million followers since the start of 2016 - roughly 14,000 total over that time-frame associated with his personal account, of which more than 10,000 occurred after the 2017 inauguration.
"The subject of these tweets has increasingly turned toward market-moving topics, most prominently trade and monetary policy".
While JPMorgan didn't cite any specific tweets that pushed markets, it said certain words have been particularly likely to trigger movement.
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Surprisingly, Trump's 3 a.m. tweets are more common than 3 p.m. tweets, which is a headache for US rate markets because overnight depth tends to be thin, according to CNBC.
Trump's most market-moving tweets dwell on trade, and, to a lesser extent, monetary policy - with the words "China", "billion", "products", "dollars", "tariffs" and "trade" making the top list, the JP Morgan analysts found. The over 14,000 tweets since January 1, 2016, represent a rich corpus of language data from which to form statistics about the president's Twitter vocabulary, it said.
However, US and Chinese markets reversed course, and skyrocketed when he changed his mind one month later, tweeting: "Talks with China are going very well!"
Since his inauguration in 2017, Trump has tweeted over 10,000 times to his 64.1 million followers.
Prices for everything from Treasurys to stocks to gold screeched into a U-turn immediately following a recent tweet from Donald Trump.
They also said the President has been tweeting a lot more frequently since late-2018.